Top stories today:

1. Apple allows alternative payment systems in App Store
2. Vision Pro getting 180-degree 3D 8K Immersive Videos
3. China’s GDP +5.2% in 2023, as population shrinks, deflation remains
4. Bitcoin ETFs in U.S. attract $1B in assets in 1st week since approval

0. Data and calendar

1. Apple allows alternative payment systems in App Store (with 27% fee), after Supreme Court denies to hear appeal

• 27% fee (or 12% for selected small businesses) compares to the typical 30% (15%) and likely reflects the ~3% in average credit card fees.

• U.S. only.

• Collecting this fee may be hard, especially for smaller app developers, as Apple admits itself.

Epic CEO Tim Sweeney called Apple’s move “bad-faith compliance”

• Unclear whether the courts will consider this fee to be in accordance with the outcome of Epic v. Apple.

2. Vision Pro getting 180-degree 3D 8K Immersive Videos

• 4 initial titles include Alicia Key: Rehearsal Room, Adventure, Wild Life, and Prehistoric Planet Immersive.

• 150 3D (non-Immersive) videos will also be available at launch, mostly from Disney.

• Reviews have been positive video-wise, but many are complaining about the device’s heavy weight, especially after 30+ minute of use.

• The Vision Pro appears not to have Ultra Wideband, nor Wi-Fi 6E or 7.

• International launch may happen before June’s expected WWDC 2024, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

AR VC funding was down to $0.9B in 2023 in the U.S., from $3.1B in 2021

4. China’s GDP +5.2% in 2023, as population shrinks, deflation remains

• GDP (YoY): 5.2% in Q4, vs. 5.3% expected, from 4.9% in the prior quarter.

  • GDP (QoQ): 1.0%, in line with expected, from 1.5%.

• China stocks were -2% to a 5-year low.

  • Hong Kong stocks -4%.

Population dropped 2M to 1.409B, in its 2nd consecutive fall, the lagged effect of its 1980 one-child policy (ended in 2015)

The GDP deflator was -1.5% in Q4, the lowest since 1999

China relaunched its youth unemployment rate, with a new methodology (removing students) that unsurprisingly improved the metric

5. Bitcoin ETFs in U.S. attract $1B in assets in 1st week since approval

• Grayscale sees outflows likely due to high (1.5%/year) fees.

• Blackrock and Fidelity lead in inflows.

• The 3 of them continue to dominate in volume.

6. Remote work % in industry not correlated with excess productivity growth

• Excess productivity growth means productivity growth minus “each industry’s average annualized productivity growth for 2006–2019 from its pandemic average.”

7. Interesting videos, posts, and memes

8. Other headlines

AI

• OpenAI working with Pentagon on cybersecurity tools.

  • Collective Agreement aims to get crowdsourced governance ideas.

  • Adam D’Angelo approached Databricks CEO to join board.

• Google Deepmind paying millions/year to top devs to avoid poaching.

• Altman: no AI training on NYT after lawsuit.

• Benioff (from Salesforce and Time): all [AI] training data has been stolen.

• Sakana raises $30M at $200M to build smaller AI models.

Tech

• Magic Leap raises $590M in debt to compete with Vision Pro.

• Electra, European EV charging startup, raises $330M Series B.

• Uber encouraging U.S. drivers switch to Tesla, other EVs.

• Google search has more spam due to SEO: study.

• Synopsys announce deal to buy Ansys in $35B cash-and-stock deal.

Tech & law

• Shein faces China data review ahead of U.S. IPO.

Biotech

• FDA approves Vertex/CRISPR gene therapy for blood disorder.

• Life expectancy in Japan passes Hong Kong’s to be world’s #1.

• Novo restarts Wegovy advertising with “Believe On” campaign.

Business

• Fed’s Waller: Fed can cut this year if no inflation rebound.

• ECB’s Lagarde: ECB will likely cut rates this week, data dependent.

• Disney rejects activist Peltz’s board nominees, renominates Iger as CEO.

• Jetblue’s acquisition of Spirit blocked by federal judge.

• Filming in LA county -32% YoY in 2023 due to strikes.

• Masterworks: invest in shares of paintings by Banksy and Picasso.

• Arrived: learn how to invest as little as $100 in fractional real estate, which has outperformed the S&P500 over the past 20 years.*

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Crypto

• SBF’s parents ask court to dismiss FTX estate lawsuit.

• Ripple explored IPO, but plans are on hold.

• IRS won’t enforce $10K crypto reporting rule — for now.

U.S. politics

• Bipartisan senators unveil $78B tax break deal.

• Biden invites leaders to discuss $111B Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan aid.

• Senate votes 68-13 to advance bill to avert shutdown.

• Trump tax leaker: feds seek 5-year prison term.

• Haley refuses to debate without Trump.

  • Starts anti-Trump TV ads in NH.

• Vivek may get job at Trump admin, Trump hints in NH.

World

• Iran strikes Pakistan, killing 2 children, according to Pakistan.

• Houthi targets in Yemen struck again by U.S.

• Houthis to be put back on U.S. terrorist list.

• China, Iran warns U.S. over Houthis.

• Hamas fires 25 rockets into Israel from northern Gaza.

• Israel, Hamas reach deal to get medicine to Israeli hostages.

• Zelensky at Davos asks for peace plan with full Russian withdrawal.

• Putin does not want to concede land, says Ukraine’s statehood threatened.

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