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Top stories today:
- Canada drops digital tax to restart trade talks with
- U.S. Senate votes on Trumpās āBig, Beautiful Billā set for 9 AM ET
- OpenAI said to be ārecalibratingā compensation after Meta bids
- Trump trade deals 10 days from deadline, sweeping reforms unmet
- Baidu Ernie 4.5 open-weights AI model family released
0. Data and calendar
All values as of 6 AM ET / 3 AM PT, other than S&P500 and NASDAQ close (4 PM ET / 1 PM PT).
All times are ET.
Listen to our AI-generated podcast summarizing todayās newsletter (beware of hallucinations):
1. Canada drops digital tax to restart trade talks with U.S.
Trump and Canadian PM Mark Carney have agreed to restart negotiations and aim for a deal by Jul. 21 following Canadaās move.
3% of digital services revenue above C$20M in a calendar year would be charged as the digital tax.
Jul. 2024: the tax was passed into law by Justin Trudeauās government.
Fri.: Trump had said he was ending all trade talks with Canada over digital tax and threatened new tariffs in a week.
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3. Senate votes on Trumpās āBig, Beautiful Billā set for 9 AM ET
The Senate version of the tax bill will add ~$3.3T to U.S. deficits over a decade, per the estimates by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office:
-$4.5B in revenues and -$1.2T in spending through 2034: the CBO estimated.
$507.6B in savings over a decade relative to current policy baseline.
~11.8M people could lose access to insurance benefits.
Elon Musk has also criticized the Senate version of the tax bill for its proposed cuts to the $7.5K EV and clean energy credits.
The Senate bill would raise Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) tax incentive by $17B
Would relax QSBS rules to let investors enter later, exit sooner, and skip taxes on up to 50% more of their windfalls.
Markets price in 70% odds of the bill being approved by Congress this week
~8 Republican senators have expressed opposition to portions of the bill.
4. OpenAI said to be ārecalibratingā employee compensation to curb Metaās talent poaching
Representational image generated using ChatGPT.
