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Top stories today:
- CPI (core) at 0.3% / 0.2% MoM, with unclear effects of tariffs
- Trump says stalled crypto bills now have votes to advance on Wed.
- OpenAI prepping ChatGPT agents to challenge Excel, PowerPoint
- Polymarket probe dropped by DOJ in win for crypto bets under Trump
- Mira Muratiās Thinking Machines confirms $2B seed at $12B valuation
0. Data and calendar
All values as of 6 AM ET / 3 AM PT, other than S&P500 and NASDAQ close (4 PM ET / 1 PM PT).
All times are ET.
Listen to our AI-generated podcast summarizing todayās newsletter (beware of hallucinations):
1. CPI (core) at 0.3% / 0.2% MoM, with unclear effects of tariffs
CPI: 0.3% MoM / 2.7% YoY in Jun., vs. 0.3% / 2.6% expected, from 0.1% / 2.4% in May.
The largest monthly gain since Jan., marking a setback for White House officials who had downplayed inflation recently.
Core CPI: 0.2% / 2.9%, vs. 0.3% / 2.9% expected, from 0.1% / 2.8%.
Trump has taken U.S. average tariffs to close to 20%
There has been just 1 deal, with Britain, and concepts of deals with Vietnam and Indonesia since Trump announced his tariffs in early Apr.
Trump wants tariffs āĀ the higher the better ā whether that is achieved unilaterally or via deals is secondary.
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3. Trump says stalled crypto bills now have votes to advance on Wed.
98% odds of passing the stablecoin-focused GENIUS Act in 2025, according to Polymarket:
The GENIUS Act, seeking to regulate stablecoins, is among the 3 bills in limbo after the failed vote.
ā[A]fter a short discussion, they have all agreed to vote tomorrow morning in favor of the Rule [the GENIUS Act],ā Trump wrote on Truth Social.
13 Republicans voted with Democrats to block the legislation from moving forward on Tue.
The CLARITY Act on SEC/CFTC oversight and a bill to block a Fed-issued digital dollar are the 2 other stalled proposals.
4. OpenAI said to be prepping ChatGPT agents to challenge Microsoft Excel, PowerPoint
Representational image generated using ChatGPT.
