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Fed 99% likely to keep rates at 5.25% - 5.50% at 2 PM ET, markets price in

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Top stories today:

  1. Fed 99% likely to keep rates at 5.25% - 5.50% at 2 PM ET
  2. Binance founder CZ sentenced to 4 months in prison, as expected
  3. Cannabis ETF +25% after Biden admin proposes to reclassify marijuana
  4. Amazon’s revenue +13% to $143B, as AWS leads in profits
  5. Tesla eliminates most of 500-person Supercharger team
  6. Microsoft invested in OpenAI due to perceived lag vs. Google

0. Data and calendar

All values as of 6 AM ET / 3 AM PT, other than S&P500 and NASDAQ close (4 PM ET / 1 PM PT).

All times are ET.

1. Fed 99% likely to keep rates at 5.25% - 5.50% at 2 PM ET, markets price in

Options are pricing in a 0.95% daily move in the S&P 500, the highest since May 2023

2. Binance founder CZ sentenced to 4 months in prison, as expected

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4. Cannabis ETF +25% after Biden admin proposes to reclassify marijuana

  • Medical use of cannabis would be recognized federally.

    • 38 states today already do so, but the federal ban makes intrastate commerce and shipping harder and more costly.

  • Proposal now under review by the White House Office of Management and Budget.

  • Currently, marijuana is a Schedule I drug, alongside heroin and LSD, and it would be moved to a Schedule III drug, alongside ketamine.

  • U.S. is under international treaties that could require the criminalization of cannabis.

5. Amazon’s revenue +13% to $143B, as AWS continue to represent most profits

Operating income totaled $15B, with $9B from AWS, $5B from North America, and $1B International

6. Tesla eliminates most of 500-person Supercharger team, planning slower growth

Read more: Bloomberg.

7. Microsoft invested in OpenAI in 2019 in part due to perceived lag vs. Google

According to an internal email released as part of the DOJ’s antitrust case against Google:

8. Interesting videos, posts, and memes

9. Other headlines


  • gpt2: mysterious GPT-4-quality chatbot launches, disappears.

  • Safari 18 may include AI-powered Intelligent Search.

  • News Corp to get $5M-$6M/year from Google for AI licensing.

  • OpenAI, Microsoft sued by 8 daily newspapers owned by Alden.

  • HubSpot: Use AI As Your Personal Assistant.*

  • Cleo: The AI that turns your financial life into an easy conversation.*

* Sponsored.

Tech earnings

  • AMD’s revenue +2% to $5.47B, guidance of +6% in Q2.

  • Pinterest’s revenue +23% to $740M, global MAUs +12% to 518M.


  • TikTok accused of encouraging users to circumvent App Store’s 30% fee.

  • TikTok Shop had 500K merchants in U.S. in Dec., 2x from Sep.

  • Banned app on App Store now #1: Delta, Nintendo game emulator.

  • SES to buy Intelsat for $3.1B in bid to compete with Starlink.

  • Twitch rolls out TikTok-like discovery feed.

  • New Roborock S8MaxV Ultra is on sale! Unlock the $1000 gift back now.*

  • BetterHelp: professional online therapy to help you win at work.*

  • Kinde: customer identity and access management in a few lines of code.*


Tech & law


  • Eli Lilly’s revenue +26% YoY to $8.77B, net income +67% to $2.24B.

  • Warning labels on front of packages weighed by FDA.

  • Ozempic reduced from $188 to $125/mo in Denmark, as subsidies cut.


  • Viking, no-kid cruises, to list in NY with $10.4B valuation.

  • Telegraph, Spectator mag back for sale.


  • Roger Ver charged by DOJ with tax fraud related to exit tax.

  • a16z makes $90M private investment in Optimism’s OP token.

  • Coinbase now supports Bitcoin L2 Lightning transactions.

  • SEC’s Gensler accused of misleading Congress on ETH.


U.S. politics

  • Columbia protestors cleared by NY police.

  • Trump fined $9K over gag order violation, gets jail warning.

  • Trump: if no immunity, “then Biden [will] be prosecuted for all of his crimes.”


  • Georgia goes into crisis after night of violence over “foreign agents” law.

  • Israel pressured by U.S. to make deal with Hamas before Rafah op.

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