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  • Google Gemini launch reportedly delayed from Dec. to Jan. due to unreliability of non-English queries

Dec 4, 2023

Google Gemini launch reportedly delayed from Dec. to Jan. due to unreliability of non-English queries

Bay Area Times
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0. Data and calendar

All values as of 6 AM ET / 3 AM PT, other than S&P500 close (4 PM ET / 1 PM PT).

All times are ET.

1. Google Gemini launch reportedly delayed from Dec. to Jan. due to unreliability of non-English queries

  • As good as or better than GPT-4 ā€œin some respects,ā€ according to a source.

  • The launch event was set for this week in Washington, D.C.

Our view: as good or better than GPT-4 doesn't sound good, but prediction markets still expect Gemini to beat GPT-4

Manifold Markets.

  • Small differences in quality to GPT-4 are expected — likely not game-changing ones.

2. Sam Altman's investment in Rain AI, with whom OpenAI signed $51M LOI, contributed to his firing

  • ā€œThe distraction and intermingling of his myriad pursuits played some role in his recent firing by OpenAI’s board for uncandid communications, according to people involved in the situation.ā€

  • Altman led Rain's 2018 seed with $1M.

  • In 2019, OpenAI signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) with Rain, promising to buy $51M worth of AI chips.

  • 100x better? Rain claims its brain-inspired NPUs (neuromorphic processing unit) will be up to 100x faster than GPU chips such as NVIDIA's.

  • The U.S.'s CFIUS recently forced the Saudi fund Prosperity7 to sell its $25M stake in Rain to a U.S. fund.

Our view: Altman's behavior is normal in Silicon Valley, and the board still needs to clarify publicly why they fired Altman

  • It's surprising we still don't know all the details of the firing.

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4. Apple Watch maintains 45% market share in Q3, with Huawei jumping into 3rd place

Counterpoint Research.

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