Top stories today:

1. Google Gemini launch reportedly delayed from Dec. to Jan.
2. Sam Altman's investment in Rain AI contributed to his firing
3. Apple Watch maintains 45% market share in Q3

0. Data and calendar

1. Google Gemini launch reportedly delayed from Dec. to Jan. due to unreliability of non-English queries

• As good as or better than GPT-4 “in some respects,” according to a source.

• The launch event was set for this week in Washington, D.C.

Our view: as good or better than GPT-4 doesn't sound good, but prediction markets still expect Gemini to beat GPT-4

• Small differences in quality to GPT-4 are expected — likely not game-changing ones.

2. Sam Altman's investment in Rain AI, with whom OpenAI signed $51M LOI, contributed to his firing

• “The distraction and intermingling of his myriad pursuits played some role in his recent firing by OpenAI’s board for uncandid communications, according to people involved in the situation.”

• Altman led Rain's 2018 seed with $1M.

• In 2019, OpenAI signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) with Rain, promising to buy $51M worth of AI chips.

• 100x better? Rain claims its brain-inspired NPUs (neuromorphic processing unit) will be up to 100x faster than GPU chips such as NVIDIA's.

• The U.S.'s CFIUS recently forced the Saudi fund Prosperity7 to sell its $25M stake in Rain to a U.S. fund.

Our view: Altman's behavior is normal in Silicon Valley, and the board still needs to clarify publicly why they fired Altman

• It's surprising we still don't know all the details of the firing.

4. Apple Watch maintains 45% market share in Q3, with Huawei jumping into 3rd place

5. Figure aims to build general-purpose AI humanoid: behind-the-scenes video

• Tesla is also building a humanoid robot codenamed Optimus.

• Our view: general-purpose robots can be even more impactful than generative AI, allowing most manual work to be automated.

6. Sales of Tesla Models Y, 3 accelerated faster than those of Model S, X

A timeline:

• 2008: Roadster launch (no longer available).

• 2012: Model S, priced today at $75K+.

• 2015: Model X, at $80K+.

• 2017: Model 3, at $39K+.

• 2020: Model Y, at $44K+.

• 2023: Cybertruck, at $80K+.

7. Interesting videos, posts, and memes

8. Other headlines

AI

• TikTok parent ByteDance may launch AI chatbot platform in Dec.

• CoreWeave raises at $7B valuation from Fidelity, Jane Street.

• Meta AI chief Le Cun: AGI decades away, not bullish on quantum.

• Regulators want “nutrition label” on medical AI tools.

• Background stories of OpenAI, Google Deepmind, Anthropic.

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Tech

• Spotify lays off 17% of workforce.

• Apple Card likely to switch from Goldman to Chase.

• Josh Kushner, CEO of $5.3B VC firm Thrive: profile.

• Walmart not advertising on X, “found other platforms.”

• The CEO Report: become a better leader by subscribing, 100% free.*

• Mercury Magazines: sign up to win a $250 Apple gift card!*

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Biotech

• Weight loss pill from Pfizer, danuglipron, abandoned due to side effects.

• Hevolution commits $100M to longevity during Saudi summit.

• Vitalia: pro-longevity pop-up city in Próspera, Honduras.

• Diets with whole grains, nuts associated with +10 years of lifespan: study.

• AstraZeneca signs $247M deal with Absci AI to develop cancer antibody.

Business

• Alaska Airlines buys Hawaiian Airlines for $1.9B.

• Global ad spend expected to +5.3% to $936B in 2024.

• Evergrande liquidation hearing postponed to Jan. 29.

• 8.54M Chinese blacklisted by govt. after missing loan payments.

• U.S. economy running good, but percepts are bad: Noah Smith.

• Charlie Munger's donations to universities included housing blueprints.

Crypto

• BTC hits $41K on ETF hopes, BTC halving in April.

• Crypto VC funding totals $1.75B in Nov., from $0.75B in Oct.

• SEC warned over “false and misleading” request by federal judge.

• Jupiter, Solana DEX aggregator, starts token airdrop.

• Coinbase CEO: no plans for Base token.

• Grayscale ETF “matter of when, not if.”

U.S. politics

• Supreme Court to rule on legality of Sackler family settlement.

  • Income, wealth tax limits arguments will be heard on Tue.

• Biden impeachment probe may be formalized by House GOP in next 2 weeks.

• DeSantis: we will win Iowa, teases plan to “supersede” Obamacare.

• Pro-DeSantis super PAC fires interim CEO after 9 days.

• Megyn Kelly to co-host GOP debate on Wed.

• George Santos likely to get HBO movie, after book.

World

• Ukraine to run out of money by year-end, White House tells Congress.

  • Bad news may be coming, warns NATO chief.

• IDF asks civilians near Khan Younis to evacuate as it moves South.

  • U.S. warship, multiple commercial ships attacked near Yemen.

  • U.S. pressing Israel to allow 200 trucks per day of aid.

• Cop28 president: “no science” fossil fuel phase-out required.

• China says another U.S. navy ship “seriously violated” sovereignty.

• Philippines: 135 Chinese ships swarming disputed Julian Felipe Reef.

• Russia raids gay bars in Moscow.

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