Top stories today:

1. House expected to pass Trump tax bill at 8 AM ET
2. Vietnam trade deal with 20% import tariff reached, Trump says
3. Tesla sales -13% YoY in Q2, stock +5% on better-than-feared drop
4. OpenAI, Oracle expand Stargate deal for more U.S. data centers
5. Trump’s crypto windfall tops $620M, eclipses real estate deals

0. Data and calendar

Listen to our AI-generated podcast summarizing today’s newsletter (beware of hallucinations):

1. House expected to pass Trump tax bill at 8:00 AM ET after 219-213 procedural vote

• 88% odds of passing today, according to Polymarket.

• Trump kept urging Republicans on social media to vote.

• GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick was the only Republican to vote “no” on the rule.

• Gamblers have raised concerns that the Senate GOP’s $1.1B tax hike would limit loss deductions to 90% of income.

3. Vietnam trade deal with 20% import tariff reached, Trump says

Vietnam is one of the biggest sources of trade deficits for the U.S.:

• A 20% tariff will apply to Vietnamese exports to the U.S., with a 40% levy on transshipped goods, Trump said.

• Trump pledged to continue cooperating “in resolving issues affecting bilateral trade relations” during the leaders’ call Wed., Vietnam’s foreign affairs ministry said.

• The U.S. recognized Vietnam as a “market economy and remove export restrictions on certain high-tech products,” Communist Party chief To Lam said.

• 3rd deal after the UK and China agreements.

• However, the Vietnam deal risks provoking retaliatory steps from China, analysts believe.

U.S. purchases from Vietnam surged amid China trade tensions

• 2024: $15B were the U.S. exports to Vietnam.

• +2% in Nike share following the trade deal news, while Gap and Lululemon Athletica stock were little changed.

  • Vietnam is a critical production hub for apparel companies.

Vietnam is the 7th largest U.S. trade partner

4. Tesla sales -13% YoY in Q2, stock +5% on better-than-feared drop