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House GOP's “8% cut” means 1% cut to nominal federal spending

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Top stories today:

  1. House GOP's “8% cut” means 1% cut to total federal spending
  2. Instacart expected to price IPO today, start trading on Tue
  3. UAW president rejects 21% cumulative pay raise offer
  4. China's Evergrande stock briefly -24% after staff detained
  5. Tim Cook: Vision Pro “on track” for early 2024

0. Data and calendar

All values as of 6 AM ET / 3 AM PT, other than S&P500 close (4 PM ET / 1 PM PT).

All times are ET.

1. House GOP's “8% cut” means 1% cut to nominal federal spending

  • 4% cut in real spending, assuming inflation at 3%.

    • 8% cut was related to nondefense non-VA discretionary spending.

  • House vote on Thu: results uncertain.

    • Bill was introduced by the House Rules Committee without Speaker McCarthy's approval.

    • Narrow 221-212 GOP margin in the House makes every defection count.

  • Senate may also reject this proposal. - Bloomberg, House bill proposal

2. Instacart expected to price IPO today, start trading on Tue

  • Up to $660M in money raised.

  • Valuation between $9.2B and $9.9B, leaning towards the upper range after Arm stock rose significantly after its IPO last week. - Bloomberg

  • Klaviyo raised its target valuation to $8.7B, money raised to $557M, at the top of the range.

September is poised to become the top IPO month of 2023, with many hoping it will reignite tech IPOs

  • Once accepted, Sidebar gives you a Personal Board of Directors, matching you with a small group of brilliant peers.

  • Users can message their group 24/7 and attend fast-paced meetings to solve their biggest challenges at work, faster.

  • Employer reimbursements possible: many Sidebar members get their membership fees covered by their employer.

Why spend a decade finding your people – join Sidebar today. Sign up for the growing waitlist of over 4,000 top senior leaders, and apply to become a founding member. - Sidebar

*Sponsored.

4. UAW president rejects 21% cumulative pay raise offer from Chrystler parent

  • The UAW wants a 40% pay hike, according to UAW president Shawn Fain.

    • 4-day workweek also a request.

Since the 90s, auto workers’ average hourly wages have fallen in real terms

August was already the worst month in workdays lost to strikes since 2000

And September is poised to be even worse:

5. China's Evergrande stock briefly was -24% after senior staff detained

  • Public security organs took criminal compulsory measures against Du and other suspected criminals at Evergrande Financial Wealth Management Co." - Statement from Shenzhen police. - Reuters

The WSJ warns that China’s Country Garden could pose an even bigger problem than Evergrande

  • Country Garden's rural, industrial focus could be a big problem as those regions are having even more economic struggles than China's metropolises. - WSJ

  • Today: deadline to pay $15M in interest, although the company has a 30-day grade period it is expected to use. - Reuters

6. Tim Cook: Vision Pro “on track” for early 2024

  • The CBS host also pressed Cook on removing ads on Twitter over an alleged rise in antisemitism, which Elon Musk vehemently denies.

7. Ukraine faces trouble to finance its $40B 2024 budget deficit

Read more: WSJ.

8. Carry trade having exceptional year (+42% YTD), beating NASDAQ

9. Interesting tweets, memes, and videos

10. Other headlines

AI

Tech

  • iOS 17 comes out today.

  • Range, backed by Google's AI Fund, has revolutionized wealth management.*

  • Unity vows to change pricing policy: “we have heard you.”

  • Augment promises 20-hour MBA for $1,750.

  • Songs adjust to Spotify by being <3:15 and having chorus in 1st 30 secs.

  • Trust & Will makes online estate planning easy & affordable.*

*Sponsored.

Biotech

  • Carenostics raises $5M for AI-powered chronic disease diagnostics.

Business

  • Elon meets Erdogan, who asks for Tesla factories, Starlink in Turkey.

  • Oppenheimer crosses $900M, set to become highest-grossing biopic.

  • Russia traps $18B in Western profits.

  • EU dependent on China for batteries: paper.

Crypto

  • FTX sales not likely to cause crash: Coinbase.

  • Mark Cuban loses $870K in wallet hack.

U.S. politics

  • Trump 50% x 49% Biden in CBS poll: voters dislike Biden's age, economy.

  • Biden: “lots of luck” to GOP impeachment effort.

  • Trump's full interview with NBC: 6-week abortion ban “terrible.”

World

  • Iran to free 5 American prisoners in exchange for unfrozen $6B.

  • China sends record 103 warplanes near Taiwan.

  • China's Yi visits Russia, in preparation for potential Xi visit in Oct.

  • China's missing defense chief opens opportunity for U.S. talks.

  • Beijing's propaganda blitz teaches citizens how to catch spies.

  • Saudis halt Israeli normalization talks.

  • Wagner group continues to operate in CAR, under Moscow control.

  • Ukraine to file WTO complaint of EU's unilateral actions on grain.

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