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Top stories today:
1. OpenAI to release open-source LLM
2. Yellen reiterates debt ceiling date of “early June”, potentially June 1
3. Biden and the top Congressional leaders meet today on debt ceiling
4. EU approves acquisition of Activision by Microsoft, after UK rejects it

0. Data and calendar

1. OpenAI to release open-source LLM

• Unlikely to be competitive with GPT-4, given that it is the company's current cash cow. - The Information

Our view: closed source LLMs can use Plugins to build moats

• Plugins offer much better functionality than just text-based LLMs.

  • OpenAI's Code Interpreter (above) can execute Python scripts, which allows for advanced data processing and analysis, and can handle uploads and downloads.

• Unfortunately for OpenAI and Google, it appears that both are already following this strategy, so it should be an (at least) 2-horse race.

2. Yellen reiterates debt ceiling date of “early June”, potentially June 1

The Treasury's cash balance has been cut in half since the start of May

3. Biden and the top Congressional leaders are set to meet today at 3 PM ET

• McCarthy was bearish on Mon, saying that “we have no agreements on anything. That’s why I’m so concerned.” - NYT

  • Republicans have rejected tax hikes proposed by the White House to reduce the deficit. The Biden administration wanted to close tax “loopholes” connected to crypto and real estate investments. - WaPost

• Biden will fly on Wed to Japan for the G7 meeting. Meaning time is running short.

As a reminder, the House GOP passed a bill that would raise the debt ceiling in exchange for spending cuts

• 1% nominal growth in discretionary spending: that's how the bill gets most of its deficit reduction, by putting spending growth at a rate lower than expected inflation over the next 10 years.

Biden could still use the $1T platinum coin, high-coupon bonds, or the 14th Amendment

• $1T platinum coin: The Treasury has the power to issue platinum coins with any face value, so why not issue a $1T one and deposit it at the Fed? Literally printing money. - Wikipedia

• High-coupon bonds (aka premium bonds): Replace existing bonds with some with super-high coupons. They would have the same face value (the law's criteria for the debt ceiling), but a very different selling price, which is money inside the Treasury's coffers. - NYT

• “Section 4 of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution states that ‘The validity of the public debt of the United States … shall not be questioned.’” - Robert Reich

4. EU approves acquisition of Activision by Microsoft, after UK rejects it

• The UK stood by its decision, with CMA head Sarah Cardell saying that “Microsoft’s proposals, accepted by the [European] Commission today, would allow Microsoft to set the terms and conditions for this market for the next 10 years. While we recognize and respect that the European Commission is entitled to take a different view, the CMA stands by its decision.” - Bloomberg, EC decision

• Microsoft has until next week to file an appeal with the UK, and it should take 6-12 months to get a judgment. - WSJ

  • If it wins that judgment, it would probably go ahead with the merger, even as it fights the FTC in court.

Our view: this is post-Brexit UK trying to show its power

• In an autocratic, anti-business way, more evidence that Brexit has failed to achieve its once-imagined pro-freedom outcomes.

5. Buffett's Berkshire: Apple is now 46% of liquid portfolio

• 2% increase in number of AAPL shares in Q1.

• Oil bets: 19% less shares of Chevron, 1% more of Occidental.

• Sold all his TSMC shares. Previously, he cited geopolitical risk as a major reason for his decision to exit the position. - Bloomberg

• New position: Capital One with a $1B investment. Given the smaller size, this is possibly a position of one of Buffett's two portfolio managers. - Reuters

Soros sells all his Tesla shares

Which leads Elon to say that “Soros hates humanity”:

Elon also calls “idiotic” the Virgin Islands subpoena on the Jeffrey Epstein-JPMorgan case

Read more: WSJ.

6. Can the world make an EV without China?

Great visual analysis on China's grip on the EV market, by the NYT:

7. Other headlines

Tech

• Elon tells Tesla staff he must approve all hirings, again.

• Elad Gil: proprietary AI models 1 or 2 generations ahead of open source.

• Whatsapp Chatlock lets you lock specific conversations.

• Twitter acquihires recruiting startup Laskie.

• Amazon plans to add ChatGPT-style search: job postings.

• Together, open source AI/LLM developer, raises $20M seed.

• Zip HQ (procurement software) raises $100M at $1.5B.

• IRS to launch pilot of free e-filing system in 2024.

Biotech

• Metformin: a comparison in diabetics vs. non-diabetics controls.

• Lilly's Alzheimer's drugs to bring $10B by 2030.

• Moderna files two counterclaims against RNAi drug developer Alnylam.

• Monica Bertagnolli picked as Biden's next NIH director.

• Senescent cells contribute to harms caused by aged blood.

Business

• Barr says regulators need to act faster, oversee exec compensation.

• SVB's former CEO blames Fed, social media for bank's collapse.

• CNN primetime ratings drops to 335K, below Newsmax's 357K.

• Pay TV penetration drops to 58.5%, lowest since 1992.

• The Messenger launches news website with $50M and Trump interview.

• Vice's new owners to provide $225M in credit and assume significant liabilities.

• Wells Fargo agrees to pay $1B to settle shareholder class-action.

• Diplomat: an interview with America's UK ambassador on the hit show.

Crypto

• SEC tells appeals court Coinbase hasn't proven that new rules are necessary.

• Jump Trading made $1B in trading with TerraUSD: SEC.

• Animoca still bullish on web3 gaming, “sustainable tokenomics.”

• Criminal extortion charges dropped against Nerayoff, who says FBI framed him.

• Paul Tudor Jones: Bitcoin has a real problem in the U.S.

• AIER gives an F to Biden's latest crypto initiative.

U.S. politics

• Giuliani sued for sexual assault, $2M unpaid wages; lawsuit claims he and Trump were selling pardons for $2M each.

• Pence to launch Presidential campaign as a “classical conservative.”

• DeSantis refuses to answer whether he thinks 2020 election was stolen.

• DeSantis signs bill defunding DEI spending in state schools.

• Durham's final report denounces entire Trump-Russia investigation.

• Simplify the tax code rather than launch a Turbotax competitor: Reason.

World

• Russia unleashes heavy strikes against Kyiv, 18 missiles shot down.

• Georgia approves 1st direct flights from Russia.

• Letter from Putin's personal confessor shows confused mentality.

8. Interesting tweets, memes, and images

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