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Top stories today:
- OpenAI drafts 5-year plan for $1T+ spend, hits $13B ARR
- Trump re-escalates China tensions with cooking oil trade threat
- Powell signals another rate cut as weak hiring pressures unemployment
- Goldman Q3 revenue +20% YoY to $15.2B, 3rd best ever
- Oura raises $900M at $11B valuation as smart ring sales cross 5.5M
- ASML +29% YTD as AI boom fuels chip machine demand
0. Data and calendar
All values as of 6 AM ET / 3 AM PT, other than S&P500 and NASDAQ close (4 PM ET / 1 PM PT).
All times are ET.
Listen to our AI-generated podcast summarizing todayās newsletter (beware of hallucinations):
1. OpenAI drafts 5-year plan for $1T+ spend, hits $13B ARR with 70% from ChatGPT users
Large tech companies are tying their fortunes to OpenAI:
OpenAI has already committed to over 26GW of capacity from Oracle, NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom.
ChatGPT has 800M+ users, but only ~5% are paying subscribers.
OpenAI reportedly aims to double its paying user base.
Deals to serve governments and enterprises with custom AI products are in the works.
New revenue streams are planned from Sora and AI agents.
OpenAI is also exploring advertising in its AI products.
~$8B was OpenAIās operating loss in H1 despite revenue seeing 2x YoY growth.
A more human-like, customizable ChatGPT personality inspired by 4o is set to roll out in the coming weeks, Altman revealed.
The new features could help ChatGPT attract more users and improve monetization.
Meanwhile, OpenAI has formed an expert council to bolster safety measures after FTC inquiry.
2. Trump re-escalates China tensions with cooking oil trade threat
The U.S. imported $1.2B in cooking oil from China in 2024, while exporting $12.8B in soybeans:
ā[W]e can easily produce Cooking Oil ourselves, we donāt need to purchase it from China,ā Trump posted on social media.
China has been avoiding U.S. soybeans despite being the worldās top buyer.
The S&P 500 turned negative (-0.2%) after Trumpās comments reignited tensions with China.
Shares of Bunge Global and Archer-Daniels-Midland, the worldās top oilseed processors, jumped on the news.
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4. Powell signals another rate cut as weak hiring pressures unemployment
