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Top stories today:
- OpenAI could lose as much as $5B in 2024
- Mistral Large 2 (123B) underperforms Llama 3.1 (70B) on reasoning
- Bing Generative Search launches, coming after Google, Perplexity
- CrowdStrike outage cost Fortune 500 $5.4B
0. Data and calendar
All values as of 6 AM ET / 3 AM PT, other than S&P500 and NASDAQ close (4 PM ET / 1 PM PT).
All times are ET.
CORRECTION: Yesterdayās calendar had GDP and Durable goods orders for Wed., rather than today.
1. OpenAI could lose as much as $5B in 2024
Gross margin could be ~0% with server costs at or above revenue.
Currently unclear how OpenAI can differentiate vs. Metaās free and open weights Llama 3.1.
Likely will need to fundraise over the next 12 months.
2. Mistral Large 2 (123B) underperforms Llama 3.1 (70B) on reasoning, at frontier on coding
Mistral Largeās MMLU of 84% is below the 86% of Llama 3.1 (70B) and the 89% of Llama 3.1 (405B) and GPT-4o:
Free only for non-commercial use, unlike Metaās Llama 3.1, which is free for commercial use too.
Open weights.
Mistral Large 2 is particularly good at coding, but still slightly underperforms GPT-4o at that
Our view: Mistral continues to lag behind Meta on open weights, and Metaās larger bankroll and distribution should keep it that way.
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4. Bing Generative Search launches, coming after Google, Perplexity
It looks like a beautified version of Googleās AI Overviews, which have been deprioritized by Google, likely after poor receptivity:
