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Top stories today:
- OpenAI projects $101B in revenue in 2029
- Writer launches Palmyra X 004 LLM, saying it is best in tool calling
- Amazon launches AI-powered Shopping Guides for 100+ product types
- Feds charge 4 companies, 15 people with crypto fraud
- Chinaās equity volatility surges to highest since 2016
- VC exits below initial investment hit highest (70%) since 2008 financial crisis
0. Data and calendar
All values as of 6 AM ET / 3 AM PT, other than S&P500 and NASDAQ close (4 PM ET / 1 PM PT).
All times are ET.
Listen to our AI-generated podcast summarizing todayās newsletter:
1. OpenAI projects $101B in revenue in 2029, losses reaching $14B by 2026
2029E revenue: $55B from ChatGPT, $22B from API sales, and $24B from other products:
Profitability expected in 2029, with $14B in projected adjusted profits.
~$340M cash burn in 1H 2024, leaving $1B in cash before raising the recent $6.6B round.
$200B+ spending expected by decadeās end, with 60% - 80% each year allocated to training or running LLMs.
41% gross margin expected for this year.
$5B in losses are projected for 2024, even excluding stock-based compensation, with $4B in revenue
~$3B/year in stock-based compensation.
Relatedly, OpenAI plans to restructure as a public benefit corporation, helping restrict hostile takeovers
A PBC business is required to balance the best interests of shareholders, employees, and the public.
A āsafe harborā to wave off activists who accuse the company of not making enough money.
OpenAI will likely retain a separate, not-for-profit entity, which would have a stake in the PBC.
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3. Writer launches Palmyra X 004 LLM, saying it is best in calling, using other tools
Palmyra X 004 leads in tool-calling accuracy, ahead of GPT-4-turbo, GPT-4o, Claude-3.5-Sonnet, and Gemini 1.5 Flash, according to Writer:
