Top stories today:

1. SpaceX said to weigh xAI or Tesla merger ahead of IPO
2. Kevin Warsh said to be set for Fed chair nomination by Trump
3. Apple acquires Israeli AI startup Q.ai, deal price said to be $1.5B
4. Amazon said to weigh $50B OpenAI investment in $100B pre-IPO round
5. OpenAI’s Sora app downloads -45% MoM in Jan., spending -32%
6. Microsoft shares plunge 10%, wiping out $357B in value after earnings

0. Data and calendar

1. SpaceX said to weigh xAI or Tesla merger ahead of IPO

Tesla stock was +2% in pre-market trading Fri.:

• The merger would see xAI shares swapped for SpaceX shares.

• Elon’s plan to put data centers into space would be boosted by such a merger.

• It could help protect xAI private investors by rolling their stakes into a larger combined entity.

2. Kevin Warsh said to be set for Fed chair nomination by Trump; Polymarket now gives 95% odds

• Fri.: the Fed chair nominee will be announced, Trump said at a Kennedy Center event.

• “It’s going to be somebody very respected… known to everybody in the financial world,” Trump said.

• 2017: Warsh interviewed for the role, but it ultimately went to Powell.

• -6%: Gold fell to $5,064/oz., while the dollar rose 0.4% and silver dropped 12%.

• Treasury yields edged higher, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.8% and 1.1%, respectively.

Warsh's odds on Polymarket jumped from 33% to 95% over the prior 24 hours

4. Apple acquires Israeli AI startup Q.ai, deal price said to be $1.5B