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Top stories today:
- WTI oil +9% to $99 after hitting $118 overnight
- Kalshi, Polymarket said to seek ~$20B valuations in fundraising talks
- Luma AI announces Uni-1 image model combining understanding
- Pentagon taps ex-Uber exec Emil Michael to lead Anthropic talks
- Anthropic launches Claude Marketplace for enterprise AI apps
- Oracle, OpenAI said to drop Stargate Texas expansion
0. Data and calendar
All values as of 6 AM ET / 3 AM PT, other than S&P500 and NASDAQ close (4 PM ET / 1 PM PT).
All times are ET.
1. WTI oil +9% to $99 after hitting $118 overnight, as Iran appoints Khamenei’s son Mojtaba as supreme leader
Oil prices surpassed $200 in inflation adjusted terms in 2008 during the Great Recession:
Hardline cleric, signaling Iran’s elite does not seek change.
Trump previously called him unacceptable.
“Mutual… a little bit” decision (with Netanyahu)when to end war.
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3. Kalshi, Polymarket said to seek ~$20B valuations in fundraising talks
Kalshi’s revenue run rate is reportedly ~$1.5B, after recently crossing $1B.
Polymarket still mostly doesn’t charge fees but has comparable volume to Kalshi.
Relatedly, women now account for 26% of Kalshi’s users, up from 13% in May 2025, as the company has expanded targeted marketing.
4. Luma AI announces Uni-1 image model combining understanding, generation
Uni-1 topped Google’s Nano Banana 2 and OpenAI’s GPT Image 1.5 on the RISEBench test results shared by Luma:
