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Nov 25, 2023

Winners and losers of the week

Bay Area Times
Bay Area Times

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0. Weekly performance

1. Winners of the week

1.1 Microsoft and its CEO Satya Nadella

  • The more anti-commercialization factions of the OpenAI board have been removed.

  • Sam Altman confirmed his loyalty to Microsoft and to its CEO Satya Nadella when, after being temporarily laid off from OpenAI, chose to go to the Seattle giant, rather than kicking off his own startup.

1.2 Google

  • OpenAI's alleged breakthrough Q* does not seem to be that impressive (yet).

  • Their LLM Gemini, expected for Q1, is still widely expected to beat GPT-4:

Manifold Markets.

1.3 OpenAI's employees and investors

  • Their stock valuation almost went from $86B to $0, but that was reversed in 5 days. After Sam Altman was fired by the old board, 98% of the company's employees pledged to leave to Microsoft, which would likely have destroyed OpenAI.

    • Yet, the pressure worked: the board quickly reverted its decision, 3 out of 4 board members resigned, and the new board is now pro-Altman.

2. Neutral

2.1 NVIDIA

Its results were exceptional, with revenue 3x YoY to $18.1B and net income 14x to $9.2B

NVIDIA.

  • Beautiful operational leverage, with a rise in product sales and prices with operating expenses being little changed.

However, markets did not love NVIDIA's outlook of $20B in revenue for Q4, so the stock was -3.1% for the week

  • It would still be 2.61x the revenue of Q4 2022, $7.643T.

3. Losers of the week

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